Jackman, it's obvious that Rebecca is kind of into you more than Kate is. Kate is definitely playing hard to get. Never give in. Text her some random funny stuff, like "Hey, I saw this squirrel chasing a reindeer and it reminded me of you". Be playful, play it cool, never look like her negative actions affect you.
You have social proof from the frat shaving cream thing.
"She doesn't really know me, she'd rather hang out in a group or something first." - on one hand, you haven't built enough value ( almost at all ) in conversations, on the other hand, this has a VERY VERY slight scent of a sh1t test. Make yourself way more interesting next time.
One way of eliminating this inconvenient is to merge your groups.
"Hey, me and my friends will go to X bar/location on Friday at 7 pm. You're welcome to bring your friends." This creates a safety net for her for obvious reasons.
"All lighthearted, lame, boring stuff." - You could have done it by running some DHV, cocky funny, negs and a routine of some sort. Again, no value at all.
"I couldn't Bounce her from the bar to the bedroom nor would I want to really" - Bounce her to another location other than a bar. Bounce her to another bar. Or another table to isolate, but in this case you have to have run strong game on her at this point.
"Based on my performance at the bar (crude but it was better than what I was doing), how do you think I stand? Are those IOI's solid?" Well, a full teeth showing smile IS an IOI, but that's not enough. At least 3 IOI's are needed to know that you're getting somewhere.
"At the table, I don't think lightly touching her arm is very cool." - Yes, it is cool. Kino serves a very solid purpose. It shows that you're used to talking to women. It also creates familiarity. As an added bonus, women like to be touched. Keep in mind that men who aren’t successful with women usually refrain from touching the opposite sex or by touching too much and too frequently or without reason. So Calibrate accordingly.
"I know that I can't pull off palm reading. I'll just start laughing!" - Even better. She'll start questioning what did you see. She will not think what you think. Create mystery : "I can't tell ya, dude, it's just so goddamn hilarious". She'll be begging for you to tell her at this point. calibration, dude.
"If I get some strong IOI, I may go for Mystery's kiss gambit in the restaurant or while walking her to her door. Otherwise, I'll go for the "first kiss" kiss close goodnight, though that seems a lil corny." - The most solid IOI when going for the kiss is if her eyes are going multiple times up and down from your eyes to your lips.